Anyone buying on the Costa del Sol in 2026 is entering a market that has been rising for several years. According to idealista's September 2026 data, asking prices across the province of Málaga rose 6.6% in a year, to an average of €4,317/m². That is slower than some parts of the coast saw in recent years, but still well ahead of inflation.
The picture is not uniform, though. Prices are climbing fast in some towns and barely moving in others. Meanwhile interest rates are rising, holiday-letting rules are tightening, and water remains on the agenda. This article puts these together.
Where are prices?
| Town | Asking price, €/m² (Sept 2026) | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Marbella | 5,967 | +3.2% |
| Benahavís | 5,602 | +6.5% |
| Estepona | 5,021 | +17.1% |
| Fuengirola | 4,452 | +1.1% |
| Torremolinos | 4,199 | +7.1% |
| Benalmádena | 4,188 | +5.1% |
| Málaga (city) | 3,969 | +4.1% |
| Nerja | 3,964 | +4.4% |
| Mijas | 3,717 | +8.5% |
| Manilva | 3,043 | +11.3% |
| Málaga province | 4,317 | +6.6% |
Source: idealista, asking prices, September 2026.
Two things stand out. The most expensive places (Marbella) are now rising more slowly, while the "catching-up" towns (Estepona, Manilva, Mijas) are rising faster. That is typical of a mature market: demand shifts towards good-quality stock that is still more affordable.
What is keeping demand up?
A broad international buyer base. In the first half of 2025, 18,360 homes were sold in the province of Málaga (official data, as compiled by Spanish Property Insight), 39% of them to foreigners, most of those non-residents. Transaction numbers were roughly flat while the average sale price rose 7% to €337,331. Price, not volume, is driving the market.
Connectivity. According to Aena, Málaga airport handled more than 26.7 million passengers in 2025. There are direct flights from Budapest, taking about three and a half hours.
Málaga as a city. The provincial capital is increasingly a centre for jobs and technology, which supports year-round demand along the coast rather than just the summer season.
Quality of life. Mild winters, healthcare and schools, and legal certainty within the EU make the region attractive to people planning longer stays too.
The supply side
The coast is a narrow strip between sea and mountains, and Spain's Coastal Law restricts building along the shoreline itself. New supply therefore comes mostly from further inland, on the hillsides and at the edges of towns.
In the first half of 2025, 2,296 new-build homes were sold in the province (12% more than a year earlier) and 5,157 new homes were approved for construction (+6%). In Estepona, Mijas and East Marbella, projects launched in 2023–2024 are now completing. In the short term that widens choice in the new-build market, which may temper price growth in some segments.
The honest risks
A balanced decision means looking at the risks too. These are the ones we consider most important today:
1. Rising interest rates
According to the Spanish financial press, 12-month Euribor averaged 2.952% in August 2026, against 2.112% a year earlier. The ECB raised rates in September 2026. Dearer credit reduces local buyers' purchasing power and matters for foreigners buying with a mortgage too.
2. Regulation and politics
2025 and 2026 brought change after change: the three-fifths community approval for holiday lets, Málaga's three-year licence suspension, the national registration number and its annulment by the courts, and in autumn 2026 a parliamentary fight over proposed VAT on tourist stays. A bill to tax non-EU buyers was also tabled in 2025; it did not become law, and as EU citizens Hungarian buyers would not have been affected. The lesson: treat letting-based numbers with caution. More in our holiday letting guide.
3. Water
During the 2023–2024 drought, parts of the province of Málaga saw water restrictions. After a wet period, by March 2026 the province's reservoirs were at around 95% of capacity overall, according to regional data. That has reduced the short-term risk, but the region's water demand is structurally high, and future dry years may bring the issue back.
4. Affordability and social pressure
Housing is getting more expensive for locals, which creates political pressure for further restrictions, especially around tourist flats and foreign purchases. That does not mean the market is about to turn, but the direction of the rules is towards tightening.
5. Overpaying in fast-rising sub-markets
Where asking prices have risen 10–17% in a year, there is a greater risk of paying next year's price today. Asking and agreed prices can also differ. Real sold prices and careful comparison are worth more than listings here.
6. Currency risk
If you think in forints, the euro exchange rate matters both when you buy and later, when you sell.
Scenarios, not forecasts
| Scenario | What would happen | What could trigger it |
|---|---|---|
| Base | moderate price growth, slower than recent years, varying by town | steady foreign demand, limited supply |
| Downside | flat prices, longer selling times, especially in letting-led segments | further rate rises, stricter letting rules, a weaker European economy |
| Upside | good micro-locations keep getting dearer | scarce supply, strong international demand, Málaga's continued growth |
This table shows possible directions; it is not a forecast.
How to read market data
Plenty of numbers circulate about the Costa del Sol, and they don't all measure the same thing:
- Asking prices (idealista, for example): what properties are advertised for. Fast and detailed, down to district level, but agreed prices are usually lower.
- Transaction data (notaries, land registries, Spain's statistics office and the housing ministry): actual completed sales, but published with a lag of a few months and in less detail.
- Averages: a town's average also depends on the mix of homes sold. If more expensive new-builds complete in a given year, the average rises even if individual homes haven't changed in price.
That is why we always look at several sources together, and for a specific offer we start from comparable sales on that street or in that complex.
What we are watching towards 2027
- Interest rates: the direction of Euribor and the ECB's next decisions.
- Holiday-letting rules: the fate of VAT on tourist stays, and whether other towns follow Málaga and Manilva.
- New supply: completions of projects launched in 2023–2024 in Estepona, Mijas and East Marbella, and how quickly the market absorbs them.
- Water: winter rainfall and reservoir levels, and progress on desalination and other water projects.
- Demand: traffic at Málaga airport and the share of foreign buyers in the next rounds of transaction data.
What this means for Hungarian buyers
- Start from your own use. If the home works for you, changes to letting rules matter less.
- Check the licensing position if letting is part of the plan.
- Use the slower sub-markets. In Fuengirola, for example, asking prices rose just 1.1% in the year to September 2026, which may signal room to negotiate.
- Think through financing in a rising-rate environment; a fixed rate brings peace of mind. See our mortgage guide.
- Don't rush. A good property rarely disappears within a week without something similar taking its place.
Over the long run, the Costa del Sol has remained one of Europe's most sought-after second-home markets. That is exactly why you should decide on the numbers, not on momentum.
If you like, we will prepare a fresh comparison for a specific town or property type. That is what our investment advisory is for, or simply get in touch.
This article is general market information and not investment advice. Past price performance is no guarantee of future results.
Frequently asked questions
Is it too late to buy on the Costa del Sol?
That depends on your goal and time horizon. For your own use over the longer term, a good location can still be a sensible decision. A purchase built purely on short lets and quick appreciation needs more cautious numbers today than a few years ago.
Where are prices rising fastest?
According to idealista's September 2026 data, among the towns covered here: Estepona (+17.1%) and Manilva (+11.3%). Growth in Marbella (+3.2%) and Fuengirola (+1.1%) was much slower.
Will prices fall?
Nobody knows for certain. Limited supply and strong international demand support prices; interest rates and regulation act as brakes. Short-term falls in some segments are possible, so a longer horizon and a good location are the best protection.
How reliable are asking prices?
They are a good guide to trends, but agreed prices are usually lower. For a specific offer, always look at comparable sold prices.
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Urbán Réka founded Monvero. She works with buyers and investors in Budapest, Dubai and on the Costa del Sol, from setting the budget to signing. This article is for general information; for advice on your own situation, get in touch.
